https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/mar/18/end-epidemics-aids-ebola-sars-sunday-essay
There are lists for the perfect conditions for epidemics, and they consists of things like the following:
- large populations
- high population density (cities)
- close proximity to animals (farms)
- large variety of species of farm animals
- human population close to wilderness (jungle)
- extensive trade networks
- collapse in public health
- economic problems
http://www.who.int/environmental_health_emergencies/disease_outbreaks/communicable_diseases/en/
That especially describes the developing world.
Between one-third and two-thirds of Europe's population died during the four years of plague that began in 1347. Southern Europe was hit hard, but Poland in particular was not as heavily affected.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Death_migration#European_outbreak
It could be that warm climates and established trade routes doomed southern Europe to plague. As for Poland, it has been theorized that Poland had a large Jewish population, and their ritual purity laws (kosher) had some effect on improving hygiene (although that was not the purpose of the laws).
It might be possible that more affluent countries might likewise be spared the worst of a pandemic because of better public health. It is sobering to look at the Black Death and infer that up to two-thirds of the population of Brazil, Nigeria, China and India might die in a pandemic. Perhaps "only" ten percent of Americans would die, which would still be nightmarish.
Relatively unscathed by future pandemics, perhaps the developed world might suffer from two other intersecting developments:
1) the rise of antibiotic resistant bacteria, and
2) an aging population.
Here's an antibiotic resistant bacteria that attaches itself to other bacteria.
https://www.sciencealert.com/antibiotic-resistant-mcr-1-gene-spreads-worldwide-from-chinese-pig-farms
That's the scary kind of thing we're in for now, and we are the ones creating the conditions for that.
Perhaps one implication of this might be the conditions of "permanent plague" in the developed world. Rather than the spread of some exotic virus through North America and Europe, what might happen instead is the emergence of traditional diseases that no longer have a cure.
At one time, old people would catch a cold and die from that or die from the resulting pneumonia. Today, Americans live to a ripe old age and die instead from heart disease or cancer. But the pneumonia might come back in an incurable form, and death patterns would begin to resemble those of the pre-antibiotic past.
This has implications.
The population of the whole world is aging. In 2005, the world reached "peak child", meaning that the number of children being born is no longer rising.
https://arstechnica.com/science/2011/07/peak-child-and-the-graying-population-of-the-developing-world/
The net result is that we reached what he termed "peak child" in about 2005. The world used to be dominated by the population in the lowest age brackets. That's now starting to shift—with the biggest chunk of the population now being in adolescence. The world isn't getting gray just yet, but, as Rosling put it, "we now just have adult population growth."
The world population continues to grow because lifespans continue to grow. It was assumed that the world's population would peak around the year 2100, but a newer estimate place it at the year 2055.
https://www.cnbc.com/id/101018722
But an aging population is a vulnerable population in the face of the reinvigoration of traditional diseases. So the world population may peak and fall sooner than that.
Another effect of all this might be that family size will take a hit. Poor countries (Afghanistan) respond to crisis by having bigger families, whereas affluent countries (Japan) respond to crisis with shrinking families. The scenario is that the developed world will not be struck by an exotic plague so much as nibbled away by diseases. That might hobble economic growth, which might lead to fewer children and less consumption, in a vicious cycle (the Japan scenario).
One thing to remember is that global per capita energy consumption peaked in 2013, and that a decline in overall human energy consumption was expected to happen in 2100 because of continued population growth. Now global energy consumption would be expected to fall in 2055 if that is when global population will peak. But disease might accelerate all of this.
That might be the silver lining.
