Friday, January 31, 2020

Are the current culture wars contrived?

Abstract: Humans love war. In the conditions of peace and prosperity, they create fake cultural wars. The trick in the modern West has been to harness and channel man's powerful and character-building yet dangerous aggressive martial instincts into economic development, citizenship and social reform (USA) and into artistic and cultural accomplishments (Europe). More recently, Elon Musk has rebranded renewable energy as macho.
  • Young white guys love to dabble in extremist politics.
  • Older, minority and working class voters prefer moderate, pragmatic politicians.
  • Because academia is so inconsequential, professors can afford to be at war with one another.
  • Amidst their opulence, Americans have become pugnacious "tenured radicals".
  • Hipster pseudo-radicals are ultimately privileged and extremely happy with the status quo, despite their self-image.
  • As the world becomes more prosperous, it becomes more riven with phony ideological divisions.
  • Historically, humans have exhibited a warlike nature.
  • William James proposed a "war against nature" -- that is, economic development -- as a preferable alternative to continuing wars between men.
  • To what extent was James merely reflecting pre-existing American sentiment?
  • In an isolationist USA, the struggle for survival in the wilderness took the place of war as a source of personal integrity which made citizenship possible.
  • In the 21st century, is the war against nature obsolete and dangerous to humanity?
  • The problem with environmentalism is that it has the same public image problem that pacificism had in the early 20th century.
  • Elon Musk has repackaged renewable energy as macho.
  • There are examples of how ideological issues are repackaged -- in fact, fabricated -- to fill the human need for war.
  • Abortion is the single most substantive -- and phony -- issue.
  • There is a disconnect between ideological passion and actual behavior.
  • People need to create issues in order to demonize others in order to create a war.
  • How does a society deal with all this testosterone?
  • Europeans learned to channel their martial spirits into cultural snobbery rather than into war or economic development.
Bernie Sanders' followers disproportionately bully critics online.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/27/us/politics/bernie-sanders-internet-supporters-2020.html

Why is that?

One hint might be their reputation for being young white guys.
Young white guys love to dabble in extremist politics.
It was pointed out years ago that the young American white guys attracted to Trump or to Sanders have a history of flirting with extremes.

Typically, they were once libertarians, then they became anarchists, then socialists and finally Trump fans.

Here's an analogy from the world of hair care.

In terms of hairstyles, women like a "perfect" and appropriate and refined haircut.

In contrast, young guys like something radical.

They grow their hair long, then later shave the sides into a mohawk, and even later shave it all off -- including all their body hair.

This also might apply to politics.
Older, minority and working class voters prefer moderate, pragmatic politicians.
In contrast, over-confident young white guys like to experience living on the edge and being radical.

This is precisely because young white guys do not live on the precipice.

This is very similar to the culture of academia.
Because academia is so inconsequential, professors can afford to be at war with one another.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sayre%27s_law
Sayre's law states, in a formulation quoted by Charles Philip Issawi: "In any dispute the intensity of feeling is inversely proportional to the value of the issues at stake." By way of corollary, it adds: "That is why academic politics are so bitter."
That might answer why the USA has fallen into such an intense culture war.

It might not be because of increasing inequality.

In fact, the problem might be too much progress, peace and prosperity.

Americans now have the luxury of pretending to be at war with one another.
Amidst their opulence, Americans have become pugnacious "tenured radicals".
Hipster pseudo-socialists in particular are actually conservative "tenured radicals".

They perceive themselves to be politically aware, radicalized and engaged.
Hipster pseudo-radicals are ultimately privileged and extremely happy with the status quo, despite their self-image.
Politics engages them the way that sports rivets the working class -- precisely because it is of no real consequence.

Again, they are comparable to comfortable professors who have fantasies of themselves as great radicals.
As the world becomes more prosperous, it becomes more riven with phony ideological divisions.
However, moderates do exist in the USA because not everyone has it quite so good.

There is a division within the Democratic Party between highly educated and prosperous yuppies who flirt with extremism, and working class voters who gravitate toward pragmatism and moderation.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/22/opinion/trump-voters.html
There are other sources of internal tension and conflicting interests among Democrats and liberals. 
I have written frequently on the problems confronting the “upstairs-downstairs” Democratic coalition — combining well-educated, relatively affluent voters who are disproportionately white with poor and working class voters who are heavily minority.
In his book, “Politics Is for Power: How to Move Beyond Political Hobbyism, Take Action, and Make Real Change,” and in an Atlantic article, Eitan Hersh, a political scientist at Tufts, has focused on the relatively weaker commitments of the upscale constituency of the Democratic coalition to policy initiatives aimed at providing substantive help.
Many college-educated people “think they are deeply engaged in politics,” Hersh wrote in the Atlantic:
"They follow the news — reading articles like this one — and debate the latest developments on social media. They might sign an online petition or throw a $5 online donation at a presidential candidate."
In fact, he argues, their consumption of political information is
"a way of satisfying their own emotional and intellectual needs. These people are political hobbyists. What they are doing is no closer to engaging in politics than watching SportsCenter is to playing football."
Hersh is hard on these voters, a group he describes as “college-educated white people, a demographic group that is now predominately Democratic.”
These voters, he writes,
"do politics as hobbyists because they can. On the political left, they may say they fear President Donald Trump. They may lament polarization. But they are pretty comfortable with the status quo."
They do not
"feel a sense of obligation, of “linked fate,” to people who have concrete needs such that they are willing to be their allies. They might front as allies on social media, but very few white liberals are actively engaging in face-to-face political organizations, committing their time to fighting for racial equality or any other issue they say they care about."
Why this global groundswell of pugnacity?
Historically, humans have exhibited a warlike nature.
Up until the American Revolution, wars were fought for profit and excitement.

From the late 18th century onward, wars were fought for nationalism and ideology.

However, these modern official reasons given for war are mere alibis.

Deep down wars are actually fought for the sake of war.

People really, really love war.

The philosopher William James asserted that humans love war, and nowadays fabricate moralistic excuses to fight it.

Nowadays, people claim that it is the enemy who is bloodthirsty.

https://www.uky.edu/~eushe2/Pajares/moral.html
At the present day, civilized opinion is a curious mental mixture. The military instincts and ideals are as strong as ever, but they are confronted by reflective criticisms which sorely curb their ancient freedom. Innumerable writers are showing up the bestial side of military service. Pure loot and mastery seem no longer morally allowable motives, and pretexts must be found for attributing them solely to the enemy. England and we, our army and navy authorities repeat without ceasing, are solely for "peace." Germany and Japan it is who are bent on loot and glory. "Peace" in military mouths today is a synonym for "war expected." The word has become a pure provocative, and no government wishing peace sincerely should allow it ever to be printed in a newspaper. Every up-to-date dictionary should say that "peace" and "war" mean the same thing, now in posse, now in actu. It may even reasonably be said that the intensely sharp preparation for war by the nations is the real war, permanent, unceasing; and that the battles are only a sort of public verification of the mastery gained during the "peace"-interval.
What happens when economies initially modernize, develop and adopt consumerism?
There emerges a popular belief that people are becoming weaker and are degenerating in the absence of war and hardship.
[M]ankind was nursed in pain and fear, and that the transition to a "pleasure economy" may be fatal to a being wielding no powers of defence against its degenerative influences. If we speak of the fear of emancipation from the fear-regime, we put the whole situation into a single phrase; fear regarding ourselves now taking the place of the ancient fear of the enemy.
Hence the wave of militarism that swept the developed world in the early 20th century.
In the developing world, where the ancient martial spirit lives on, men might look on with some disgust at a prosperous consumerist society.
Meanwhile men at large still live as they always have lived, under a pain-and-fear economy -- for those of us who live in an ease-economy are but an island in the stormy ocean -- and the whole atmosphere of present-day utopian literature tastes mawkish and dishwatery to people who still keep a sense for life's more bitter flavors. It suggests, in truth, ubiquitous inferiority.
This revulsion with comfort and ease and "socialism" as ideals might be especially true in the Moslem world.

Islam seems bound up with a masculine ethic compared to Christianity's passivity.

But even in the developed world, the ancient warrior virtues are still necessary for the survival of society, even if these martial drives no longer are channeled into war.
All these beliefs of mine put me firmly into the anti-military party. But I do not believe that peace either ought to be or will be permanent on this globe, unless the states, pacifically organized, preserve some of the old elements of army-discipline. A permanently successful peace-economy cannot be a simple pleasure-economy. In the more or less socialistic future toward which mankind seems drifting we must still subject ourselves collectively to those severities which answer to our real position upon this only partly hospitable globe. We must make new energies and hardihoods continue the manliness to which the military mind so faithfully clings. Martial virtues must be the enduring cement; intrepidity, contempt of softness, surrender of private interest, obedience to command, must still remain the rock upon which states are built -- unless, indeed, we which for dangerous reactions against commonwealths, fit only for contempt, and liable to invite attack whenever a centre of crystallization for military-minded enterprise gets formed anywhere in their neighborhood.
Patriotism finds its historic origins in war, but later serves as the impulse behind civic life and social reform.
The war-party is assuredly right in affirming and reaffirming that the martial virtues, although originally gain by the race through war, are absolute and permanent human goods. Patriotic pride and ambition in their military form are, after all, only specifications of a more general competitive passion. They are its first form, but that is no reason for supposing them to be its last form. Men are now proud of belonging to a conquering nation, and without a murmur they lay down their persons and their wealth, if by so doing they may fend off subjection. But who can be sure that other aspects of one's country may not, with time and education and suggestion enough, come to be regarded with similarly effective feelings of pride and shame? Why should men not some day feel that is it worth a blood-tax to belong to a collectivity superior in any respect? Why should they not blush with indignant shame if the community that owns them is vile in any way whatsoever? Individuals, daily more numerous, now feel this civic passion. It is only a question of blowing on the spark until the whole population gets incandescent, and on the ruins of the old morals of military honor, a stable system of morals of civic honor builds itself up. What the whole community comes to believe in grasps the individual as in a vise. The war-function has grasped us so far; but the constructive interests may some day seem no less imperative, and impose on the individual a hardly lighter burden.
William James proposes that the impulse behind war can be channeled into economic development.
The irony here is that, as James just explained, it is economic development that undermines the martial impulses.
William James proposed a "war against nature" -- that is, economic development -- as a preferable alternative to continuing wars between men.
It may end by seeming shameful to all of us that some of us have nothing but campaigning, and others nothing but unmanly ease. If now -- and this is my idea -- there were, instead of military conscription, a conscription of the whole youthful population to form for a certain number of years a part of the army enlisted against Nature, the injustice would tend to be evened out, and numerous other goods to the commonwealth would remain blind as the luxurious classes now are blind, to man's relations to the globe he lives on, and to the permanently sour and hard foundations of his higher life. To coal and iron mines, to freight trains, to fishing fleets in December, to dishwashing, clotheswashing, and windowwashing, to road-building and tunnel-making, to foundries and stoke-holes, and to the frames of skyscrapers, would our gilded youths be drafted off, according to their choice, to get the childishness knocked out of them, and to come back into society with healthier sympathies and soberer ideas. They would have paid their blood-tax, done their own part in the immemorial human warfare against nature; they would tread the earth more proudly, the women would value them more highly, they would be better fathers and teachers of the following generation.
William James's speech on the "moral equivalent of war" was delivered at Stanford University in 1906.

To what extent was his declared "war against nature" as an alternative to actual war taken to heart by the American people?
To what extent was James merely reflecting pre-existing American sentiment?
https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/features/ansel-closing-american-wilderness/
In 1893 a young historian addressed the American Historical Association, which was meeting at the Columbian Exposition in Chicago. Frederick Jackson Turner presented his thesis, "The Significance of the Frontier in American History." He began by quoting from the Census of 1890:
"Up to and including 1880 the country had a frontier of settlement, but at present the unsettled area has been so broken into by isolated bodies of settlement that there can hardly be said to be a frontier line."
Turner concluded his thesis, "The frontier has gone, and with its going has closed the first period of American history." As if to confirm Turner, the Columbian Exposition displayed a small log cabin as an artifact.
For Turner, the frontier shaped and defined the American character, its manly toughness and rugged individualism.
Turner argued that the frontier had made the United States unique. Due to hardship, residents were forced to become resourceful and self-reliant. They developed strength and "rugged individualism," which in turn fostered the development of democracy. Turner paid no attention to women or the plight of Native Americans.
Again, in most societies historically, war was seen as the source of masculine virtues such as honor and patriotism.
In an isolationist USA, the struggle for survival in the wilderness took the place of war as a source of personal integrity which made citizenship possible.
In many respects, Turner was reflecting the views of his generation. Americans generally thought of the frontier as a primeval wilderness, where men could live close to nature and be purified of civilization's corruption. Many thought of the West as a social safety valve, where the poor could start a new life instead of succumbing to urban problems in large cities.
A bold new question arises amidst this review of history.
In the 21st century, is the war against nature obsolete and dangerous to humanity?
Much the same has been said about war itself.

As the military historian Gwynne Dyer explained, war is now obsolete.

Wars were once fought for profit, and more recently for ideology.

But with the creation of weapons of mass destruction, war no longer serves a plausible purpose for anyone.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_(miniseries)

But it's not just WMDs that make war obsolete, but globalization.

However, this is not the peace that liberals imagine would come from free trade and the resulting global democratization and mutual understanding, etc., etc.

Rather, its the extreme dread of disrupting global commerce.

Global trade has become too big to fail.

In 2019, Iran launched an attack on Saudi oil fields, an event certain to launch a world war.

Yet Saudi Arabia did not retaliate, explaining that a war in the Middle East would lead to the collapse of the world economy.

Likewise, in 2020, the USA assassinated an Iranian general.

World war did not result because the Iranians dread the collapse of the world economy.

Progressive intellectuals like Steven Pinker assert that violence and war is (supposedly) on the decline.

Pinker claims that this is because humans are becoming more modern, rational and enlightened.
This is true, but in a different sense than Pinker's optimism would imply.

Rational governments are not embracing their opponents out of a spiritual awakening brought on by science and technology.

Rather, educated people understand that the consequences of war would be the total collapse of civilization thanks to the dreadful weapons created by science and technology.

What is it like for a civilization to collapse?

Three thousand years ago, Greek civilization collapsed for a 200 year period.

In fact, the entire eastern Mediterranean fell into anarchy and piracy.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_Dark_Ages
The Greek Dark Ages, Homeric Age[citation needed] (named for the fabled poet, Homer) or Geometric period (so called after the characteristic Geometric art of the time),[1] is the period of Greek history from the end of the Mycenaean palatial civilization around 1100 BC to the first signs of the Greek poleis (city-states) in the 9th century BC.
The archaeological evidence shows a widespread collapse of Bronze Age civilization in the Eastern Mediterranean world at the outset of the period, as the great palaces and cities of the Mycenaeans were destroyed or abandoned. At about the same time, the Hittite civilization suffered serious disruption and cities from Troy to Gaza were destroyed and in Egypt the New Kingdom fell into disarray that led to the Third Intermediate Period.
Following the collapse, fewer and smaller settlements suggest famine and depopulation. In Greece, the Linear B writing of the Greek language used by Mycenaean bureaucrats ceased and the Greek alphabet would not develop until the beginning of the Archaic Period. The decoration on Greek pottery after about 1100 BC lacks the figurative decoration of Mycenaean ware and is restricted to simpler, generally geometric styles (1000–700 BC).

If war is obsolete, so is America's 19th-century surrogate for actual war -- the war against nature.
What Gwynne Dyer says about war -- "We can't do that anymore" -- now applies to the uninhibited exploitation of the environment.
The problem with environmentalism is that it has the same public image problem that pacificism had in the early 20th century.
It looks wimpy.

But this is changing thanks to Elon Musk's genius for rebranding.

William James sought to re-make economic development into a macho military project.

Again, this was at a time when development looked like a source of weak, feminine, corrupt, degenerate character.

Perhaps animal rescue could be rebranded as macho if it involved the kind of macho daring that is associated with hunting.

[The Most Interesting Man in the World rescues the fox at a fox hunt]


William James sought to rebrand economic development as macho.
Elon Musk has repackaged renewable energy as macho.
Musk presents the technology that will save the Earth to the American people as the macho technology that will propel humans to colonize Mars.

On the one hand, perhaps owning a Tesla buys into a consumerist macho fantasy.

This is much the way that aging, privileged "tenured radical" professors imagine themselves to be so subversive and potent.

On the other hand, the progress Musk has made in mainstreaming and advancing once-marginal technology is striking.

The lesson of Elon Musk is that to fight climate change, it might be better not to mention the words "climate change" or "global warming".

Instead, there would be massive investments made in scientific research and technology development related to global warming.

But the reasons given for this would be for national defense and long-term energy independence.

There is a precedent for this kind of relabeling of scientific research.

President Ronald Reagan called for the construction of a space-based missile defense system in 1983.

It would seem that the bulk of the program consisted of re-categorizing unrelated and already ongoing scientific research.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic_Defense_Initiative
There are examples of how ideological issues are repackaged -- in fact, fabricated -- to fill the human need for war.
It has been debated whether the current "culture wars" are really about anything other than conflict for the sake of conflict.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/06/opinion/is-politics-a-war-of-ideas-or-of-us-against-them.html
Is the deepening animosity between Democrats and Republicans based on genuine differences over policy and ideology or is it a form of tribal warfare rooted in an atavistic us-versus-them mentality?
Is American political conflict relatively content-free — emotionally motivated electoral competition — or is it primarily a war of ideas, a matter of feuding visions both of what America is and what it should become?
Jonathan Rauch, a senior fellow at Brookings, recently put the issue this way in an essay at the National Affairs website: “Here we reach an interesting, if somewhat surreal, question. What if, to some significant extent, the increase in partisanship is not really about anything?”
It seems that both actual ideological differences and tribal partisan spirit are generating conflict.
This debate is sometimes framed in either-or terms, but the argument is less a matter of direct conflict and more a matter of emphasis and nuance.
Yphtach Lelkes, a professor of political communication at the University of Pennsylvania, wrote me that “ideology and partisanship are very hard, and likely impossible, to disentangle,” but, he argued, the larger pattern appears to be that
"while both seem to be occurring, ideology driving partisanship only seems to be occurring among those that are most aware of politics, while partisanship driving ideology seems to be happening among everyone."
At play, there is conflict for the sake of conflict along with real substantive issues at stake.
Abortion is the single most substantive -- and phony -- issue.
Democrats and Republicans have become increasingly divided on social, moral, and group-linked issues and are less likely to follow the party on these matters.” She pointed out that the tribal loyalty of many Republican voters would be pushed beyond the breaking point if the party abandoned its opposition to abortion, just as it is “difficult to imagine feminist women continuing to support the Democratic Party if it abandoned its pro-choice position on abortion.
For example, in an American small town that is not afflicted by economic troubles, there is only one political issue -- abortion.

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/11/13/where-the-small-town-american-dream-lives-on

And yet abortion as an issue is curiously recent.

There is no mention of abortion in the Bible.

The great sin in both the Old Testament and New Testament is divorce.

Once upon a time, very few Americans got divorced.

As divorce rates have climbed and marriage rates have declined, most American marriages now end in divorce.

Image result for divorce rate graph
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2015/06/23/144-years-of-marriage-and-divorce-in-the-united-states-in-one-chart/

Meanwhile, with birth control and sex education, the abortion rate has dropped.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abortion_statistics_in_the_United_States

It seems that the current popularity of divorce has made it an untenable target for disapproval by traditional religion.

Perhaps in the same way, the falling abortion rate has actually made abortion a more convenient issue for conservatives to harp on.

There is another big elephant in the room.
There is a disconnect between ideological passion and actual behavior.
Catholics in the USA have the same abortion rate as the general population.

https://www.americamagazine.org/politics-society/2018/01/24/catholics-are-just-likely-get-abortion-other-us-women-why

There are substantive issues at stake in the current ideological civil war.

But those issues are recent fabrications.
People need to create issues in order to demonize others in order to create a war.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labeling_theory
Labeling theory posits that self-identity and the behavior of individuals may be determined or influenced by the terms used to describe or classify them. It is associated with the concepts of self-fulfilling prophecy and stereotyping. Labeling theory holds that deviance is not inherent in an act, but instead focuses on the tendency of majorities to negatively label minorities or those seen as deviant from standard cultural norms.
Those who oppose abortion are pseudo-conservatives who retroactively invent traditions.

Interestingly, this is quite similar to the pseudo-radicals of the university who psychologically feel a need to manufacture fake grievances.

This brings us back to the so-called "Bernie bros" and other young white guys who keep switching ideologies in their quest for a good fight.
How does a society deal with all this testosterone?
The launch of the Crusades in the Middle Ages is instructive.

Within Christendom, there were multiple players who each had multiple motives.

One motive was a thirst for war.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Crusade#Historiographical_debate
The very influential Steven Runciman (1951) significantly shaped the popular perception of the crusades in the later 20th century. Runciman represents the view that the motivation for the crusades was primarily that of a "barbarian invasion" motivated by greed and the desire for spoils and adventure among the Frankish nobles.[115] Runciman argued that the crusade was motivated by a combination of theological justification for holy war and a "general restlessness and taste for adventure", especially among the Normans and the "younger sons" of the French nobility who had no other opportunities.[116] and goes as far as suggesting that there wasn't any immediate threat from the Islamic world, arguing that "in the middle of the 11th century the lot of the Christians in Palestine had seldom been so pleasant".
However, once in the Moslem world, these rough Christian warriors found themselves surrounded by civilized courtly life.

This was an inspiration for the development of medieval "courtly love".

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Courtly_love
Courtly love (Occitan: fin'amor [finaˈmuɾ]; French: amour courtois [amuʁ kuʁtwa]) was a medieval European literary conception of love that emphasized nobility and chivalry. Medieval literature is filled with examples of knights setting out on adventures and performing various deeds or services for ladies because of their "courtly love". This kind of love is originally a literary fiction created for the entertainment of the nobility, but as time passed, these ideas about love changed and attracted a larger audience. In the high Middle Ages, a "game of love" developed around these ideas as a set of social practices. "Loving nobly" was considered to be an enriching and improving practice.[1][2] 

Courtly love began in the ducal and princely courts of Aquitaine, Provence, Champagne, ducal Burgundy and the Norman Kingdom of Sicily[3] at the end of the eleventh century. In essence, courtly love was an experience between erotic desire and spiritual attainment, "a love at once illicit and morally elevating, passionate and disciplined, humiliating and exalting, human and transcendent".
One great influence was Moslem Spain.
Hispano-Arabic literature, as well as Arabic influence on Sicily, provided a further source, in parallel with Ovid, for the early troubadours of Provence—overlooked though this sometimes[quantify] is[by whom?] in accounts of courtly love. The Arabic poets and poetry of Muslim Spain express similarly oxymoronic views of love as both beneficial and distressing as the troubadours were to do;[3] while the broader European contact with the Islamic world must also be taken into consideration.[16] Given that practices similar to courtly love were already prevalent in Al-Andalus and elsewhere in the Islamic world, it is very likely that Islamic practices influenced the Christian Europeans - especially in southern Europe where classical forms of courtly love first emerged.
This is a big step in the evolution of Western macho.

At one time, societies tended to glamorize the warrior life.

In the USA, this impulse gets channeled into economic productivity.

In Europe, it is associated with "cultural capital" in the form of education, art and "culture".

The USA is the outlier here.

In almost every society, men are associated with culture, and women with nature.

In the USA, men are associated with nature and women with culture.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ted_C._Lewellen

In Europe, one can see how the association of men with culture developed.

A portrait of Louis XIV, the "sun king" of France.

Louis XIV of France.jpg
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Louis_XIV_of_France

For the American viewer, he is dressed like a woman, from the wig down to the high heels.

For the European of that age, this is the iconography of power.
Europeans learned to channel their martial spirits into cultural snobbery rather than into war or economic development.
In some respects, the association of power with ritual and display might be a Catholic thing.

Secularized Catholic countries like France value art and culture and associate it with moral virtue, and they distrust wealth.

In the USA, wealth is held a sign of virtue, whereas "culture" and art are window dressing at best, suspicious and abnormal at worst.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mich%C3%A8le_Lamont

Sunday, January 26, 2020

California megaregion for high-speed rail?

High-speed rail has the potential to disrupt air travel within a two-hour radius.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disruptive_innovation#Examples
In almost every market where high speed rail with journey times of two hours or less was introduced in competition with an air service, the air service was either greatly reduced within a few years or ceased entirely. Even in markets with longer rail travel times, airlines have reduced the amount of flights on offer and passenger numbers have gone down. Examples include the Barcelona-Madrid high speed railway, the Cologne Frankfurt high speed railway (where no direct flights are available as of 2016) or the Paris-London connection after the opening of High Speed 1. For medium-distance trips, like between Beijing & Shanghai, the high speed rail and airlines often end up in extremely stiff competition.
California's high-speed rail project would link San Francisco and Los Angeles in a 2 hour, 40 minute ride.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_High-Speed_Rail

That might be just a bit too far for a successfully disruptive system.

In any case, the project has been cancelled because of cost overruns and delays.
On February 12, 2019, Governor Gavin Newsom in his first State of the State address announced that, while work would continue on the 171-mile (275 km)[9] Central Valley segment from Bakersfield to Merced, the rest of the system would be indefinitely postponed, citing cost overruns and delays.[10] Project costs have escalated significantly from an initial estimate of $33.6 billion in 2008[11] for the Anaheim to San Francisco section according to the 2008 business plan, and a $40 billion total figure given to voters whose approval was sought in 2008.[12][13] The 2008 business plan proposed a 2028 completion date for Phase 1 and a one-way fare of $55 from Los Angeles to San Francisco.[14] In 2012 the Authority re-estimated the project's cost at $53.4 billion ($2011) or $68.4 billion (YOE).
There might be an underlying problem.

San Francisco and Los Angeles comprise two distinct megaregions.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Megaregions_of_the_United_States

In one map, California seems to have three megaregions.

https://www.citylab.com/life/2019/02/global-megaregions-economic-powerhouse-megalopolis/583729/

Image result for megaregions map city lab richard florida north america
High-speed rail might only make sense in the kind of long high-density corridor that one finds in the northeastern USA.

This introduces the chicken-or-egg causality dilemma.

If high-density rail is built, will it help promote mega-development that would eventually justify the cost of such a system?

It might not in California.

California is simply not dedicated to high-density development the way the east coast is.

Even parts of Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean have greater population densities than California.

https://2oqz471sa19h3vbwa53m33yj-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/north-america.jpg

Image result for population density usa map
That is the tragedy of California.

California should be one solid megaregion not only from San Francisco to Los Angeles, but from San Francisco to Reno and from Los Angeles to Las Vegas.

Fresno and Bakersfield ideally would be cities of the size and stature of Los Angeles and San Francisco.


That would justify California's high-speed rail dreams.

Saturday, January 18, 2020

Shopping malls the future of tourism?

Abstract: A pattern repeats itself in the evolution of amusement parks, of the mafia and of Las Vegas: a crude, small-time operation becomes big-time and corporate, then gets displaced by corporations from the mainstream. Also: How did Prohibition reflect a Protestant ethic?
  • The new shopping malls are indoor amusement parks.
  • How does any of this reflect the theory of disruptive innovation?
  • American Dream Meadowlands markets itself as a hybrid of mall and family entertainment center.
  • The evolution of organized crime in the USA fits a similar pattern.
  • The development of Las Vegas follows a similar pattern as above.
  • How did Prohibition reflect a Protestant ethic?
  • The Catholic world is more likely to tolerate special times and spaces.
A trip to Bali can be the dream of a lifetime.

Unfortunately, Bali is overflowing with tourists and garbage.

https://www.businessinsider.com/bali-travel-tips-advice-wish-i-had-kept-waiting-2020-1

There are unique places in the world.

Global tourism is destroying these places.

Should tourism be banned?

This raises an even more provocative question.

Is tourism obsolete?

More specifically, is global tourism going to be replaced by new shopping malls?

The shopping malls of the past sold things in the suburbs.

The new shopping malls sell experiences to city dwellers.

Like indoor skiing.

And water parks.
The new shopping malls are indoor amusement parks.
The American Dream mall of New Jersey has all of this and more.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/27/arts/american-dream-mall-opening.html

It's all very corporate and sterile.

This stands in stark contrast with New Jersey's infamously dangerous yet addictive amusement park, Action Park.

["Class Action Park: The World's Most Dangerous Amusement Park", 2019, trailer]



How does any of this reflect the theory of disruptive innovation?
The theory postulates that a cheaper, inferior, marginal product finds a niche on the fringes, improves over time and then displaces the established market.

There is one important point this theory that is often missed.

Disruptive innovation is not just when a cheap fringe product improves and sweeps aside an incumbent product.

Rather, it is when an entirely different market blows away the mainstream market.

For example, short-term home rentals like Airbnb are now displacing the hotel industry.

But short-term rentals were never the low-end of the hotel industry.

Rather, short-term rentals were an entirely different market with a distinct clientele (frugal hipster vacationers) from that of the hotel industry (lucrative business travel).

Likewise, smartphones have displaced landline telephones.

Smartphones are usually understood as telephones that are more advanced (hence the term "smartphone").

In some sense, this is true.

This is a case of "sustaining innovation", when a mainstream product improves.

Technologically, basic cellphones were an advancement over landline phones, and smartphones were an advancement over basic cellphones.

This is how ordinary people experienced the personal technology revolution.

But in terms of disruptive innovation, a "smartphone" might be better understood as a small, portable, cheap computer which has turned telephony into just another app.

That is, the smartphone is a whole different kind of technological category (portable computer) that slew another technological category (portable telephony).

In a way, one can think of the smartphone as a kind of hybrid of two categories -- telephones and computers.

It might be useful to keep an eye out for such hybrids that might be harbingers of change.
American Dream Meadowlands markets itself as a hybrid of mall and family entertainment center.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Dream_Meadowlands
American Dream Meadowlands (ADM) is a retail and entertainment complex in the Meadowlands Sports Complex in East Rutherford, New Jersey, United States, that will have over 450 stores.[4] The first and second of four opening stages occurred on October 25, 2019, and on December 5, 2019.[5][6] The remaining opening stages will take place in early 2020.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Family_entertainment_center
A family entertainment center (or centre), often abbreviated FEC in the entertainment industry[1] (also known as an indoor amusement park or indoor theme park), is a small amusement park marketed towards families with small children to teenagers, and often entirely indoors or associated with a larger operation such as a theme park. They usually cater to "sub-regional markets of larger metropolitan areas."[1] FECs are generally small compared to full-scale amusement parks, with fewer attractions, a lower per-person per-hour cost to consumers than a traditional amusement park, and not usually major tourist attractions, but sustained by an area customer base. Many are locally owned and operated, although there are a number of chains and franchises in the field.[1] FECs are sometimes called family amusement centers, play zones, family fun centers, or simply fun centers. Some non-traditional FECs, called urban entertainment centers (UECs), with more customized and branded attractions and retail outlets, are associated with major entertainment companies and may be tourist destinations.
American Dream Meadowland would not represent a disruption of malls by amusement parks.

Suburban malls are being disrupted by online shopping.

Rather, American Dream Meadowland might represent a disruption of amusement parks by a new kind of mall.

If, in the dead of winter, New Yorkers can take a 20 minute bus ride to an indoor water park, what might this do to tourism to Florida?

Instead of going to Disneyland, people will go to the mall.

Here we have the developmental pattern of the amusement park.
  • Amusement parks were once pretty crude small-time operations.
  • Amusement parks became corporate and went upscale (sustaining evolution).
  • Amusement parks are being displace by malls (disruptive revolution).
The evolution of organized crime in the USA fits a similar pattern.
  • The mafia in Italy was once a local phenomena.
  • The mafia in the USA became corporate.
  • The mafia has been displaced by corporations.
The Sicilian mafia is traditionally a local democracy.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sicilian_Mafia#Clan_hierarchy
The boss of a clan is typically elected by the rank-and-file soldiers (though violent successions do happen). Due to the small size of most Sicilian clans, the boss of a clan has intimate contact with all members, and doesn't receive much in the way of privileges or rewards as he would in larger organizations (such as the larger Five Families of New York).[130] His tenure is also frequently short: elections are yearly, and he might be deposed sooner for misconduct or incompetence.
The consigliere ("counselor") of the clan is also elected on a yearly basis. One of his jobs is to supervise the actions of the boss and his immediate underlings, particularly in financial matters (e.g. preventing embezzlement).[132] He also serves as an impartial adviser to the boss and mediator in internal disputes. To fulfill this role, the consigliere must be impartial, devoid of conflict of interest and ambition.
In the USA, the mafia has a corporate form.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Commission_(mafia)
The Commission is the governing body of the American Mafia, formed in 1931 by Charles "Lucky" Luciano following the Castellammarese War.[1] The Commission replaced the capo di tutti capi ("boss of all bosses") title, held by Salvatore Maranzano before his murder, with a ruling committee that consists of the bosses of the Five Families of New York City, as well as the bosses of the Chicago Outfit and the Buffalo crime family. The purpose of the Commission was to oversee all Mafia activities in the United States and serve to mediate conflicts between families.
The American mafia is also multi-ethnic.
The Commission allowed Jewish mobsters Meyer Lansky, Bugsy Siegel, Louis "Lepke" Buchalter, Dutch Schultz, and Abner "Longie" Zwillman to work alongside them and participate in some meetings.
In the past couple of generations, the mafia-as-corporation in the USA itself has been displaced by corporations and the government.

Major sources of revenue for organized crime such as alcohol, gambling and pornography have gone corporate and are carefully regulated by the state.

If prostitution is legalized in the USA and carefully regulated, it would be close to a death blow to the remnants of the American mafia.

The mafia in the USA did not deal in narcotics, but one finds a similar pattern of displacement of organized crime by corporations.

The drug trade with Mexico is largely in marijuana and methamphetamemes.

Today, in the USA, marijuana is becoming legalized and America grows its own.

In terms of narcotics, Americans have switched over to opioids that are made in America.

(Another "bonus" of this development is that meth keeps users awake for days, during which time they commit robberies, whereas opioids knock people out.)
The development of Las Vegas follows a similar pattern as above.
  • The saloon was a crude, local escape from reality.
  • Las Vegas became a mega-saloon created by the mafia-as-corporation.
  • Las Vegas has been taken over by transnational entertainment corporations.
With Prohibition, the American mafia as marginal urban ethnic phenomena went big time and became a corporation.

Prohibition lasted from 1920 to 1933.

At the commencement of Prohibition, the USA could have been described as a nation of alcoholics.

https://www.pbs.org/kenburns/prohibition/roots-of-prohibition/
By 1830, the average American over 15 years old consumed nearly seven gallons of pure alcohol a year – three times as much as we drink today – and alcohol abuse (primarily by men) was wreaking havoc on the lives of many, particularly in an age when women had few legal rights and were utterly dependent on their husbands for sustenance and support.
To some degree, Prohibition was not just aimed at banning alcohol, but at destroying the tavern or saloon.
It would take the emergence of a new organization, the Anti-Saloon League, for the drys' dream to enter the realm of the possible.
The Anti-Saloon League
The ASL, under the shrewd and ruthless leadership of Wayne Wheeler, became the most successful single issue lobbying organization in American history, willing to form alliances with any and all constituencies that shared its sole goal: a constitutional amendment that would ban the manufacture, sale and transportation of alcohol. They united with Democrats and Republicans, Progressives, Populists, and suffragists, the Ku Klux Klan and the NAACP, the International Workers of the World, and many of America's most powerful industrialists including Henry Ford, John D. Rockefeller, Jr., and Andrew Carnegie – all of whom lent support to the ASL's increasingly effective campaign.
For one thing, saloons were feared because immigrant men would gather there and talk about politics and -- just maybe -- violent revolution.

The saloon was also a kind of "alternate reality" of sorts, a genuinely dangerous space in which almost anything could happen.

This was the appeal.

The saloon was an escape from the new, harsh reality of industrialization.

Working men, who were once independent farmers and tradesmen, now labored at the bottom of a corporate hierarchy.

Las Vegas represents an entire city as a mega-saloon.

Las Vegas as a vacation destination was the vision of the feared gangster Bugsy Siegel.

There is not so much as a single plaque on a wall to commemorate what Siegel did for Nevada.

[The Godfather part 2, 1974, "That kid's name was Mo Green"]


Ordinary people used to go to Las Vegas for the chance to rub shoulders with mobsters and movie stars.

Today, Las Vegas has become Disney-fied.

["Casino", 1995, end scene]


The old Vegas is never going to come back.

["The Cooler", 2003, Shangri-La scene]


A question nags throughout a discussion of the history of Prohibition.
How did Prohibition reflect a Protestant ethic?
The attitudes toward life of southern and northern Europe diverge along the lines of credulity.

The Mediterranean Sea has hosted major urban civilizations that have lasted for thousands of years.

The general attitude in older cultures is a blasé "been there, seen it, done it".

Like an old couple who have had many children, they don't get carried away with enthusiasm, and they tend to just accept things.

Subsequently, Catholicism in southern Europe absorbs all sorts of pre-Christian elements (for example, daily religious festivals that predate Christianity).

Historically, northern Europe consisted of poor freezing villagers worshiping the war god Wotan.
In northern Europe, Christianity was a revolution that swept aside everything prior to it (this is also what Arabs say about Islam).

In a sense, the rise and establishment of Protestantism in northern Europe is an expression of that piety and credulity.

There were hints of Protestantism as far back as the Middle Ages.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waldensians

It did not really catch on and was easily repressed.

Like any smart monopoly, the Church later recreated something like the Waldensians in order to co-opt dissent.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Franciscans

Sworn to poverty, the Franciscans were a major source of revenue for the Church.

Half the Franciscans were dedicated to a life of poverty, while the other half were committed to the Church hierarchy and its revenues.

Protestantism eventually did catch on -- in northern Europe.

In southern Europe at the time, there were hints of Protestant ideas.

For example, many of Leonardo da Vinci's ideas seemed to resonate with Protestantism.
But Leonardo would never get too excited about religion or openly challenge the Church.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Personal_life_of_Leonardo_da_Vinci#Philosophy_and_religion

And so, while the Renaissance in northern Europe involved a rebirth of Christianity, in southern Europe it was merely the rebirth of Greek-inspired art.

Of course, in both northern and southern Europe, the old barbaric impulses still persisted despite the hold of Christianity.

In Catholic southern Europe, they were channeled into things like bullfighting (a holdover from the Roman coliseum).

In Protestant northern Europe, they were severely repressed.

When repressed aggressive drives did emerge in northern Europe, they were explosive and were channeled into religious and ideological fanaticism (e.g., the Thirty Years War, German fascism).
The Catholic world is more likely to tolerate special times and spaces.
For example, in Italy and Spain, almost every day is dedicated to a saint and is marked by a strange festival of some sort.

In Catholic countries, there is a brief period each year in which social prohibitions are cast aside.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carnival

Likewise, the Catholic view of the world broadly sees the world as sinful.

In this profane world, a special holy space is to be carved out as a contemplative retreat.

In some sense, the modern university is the inheritor of this mission.

Importantly, however, the university can germinate and propagate challenges to the social order and the Church.

Modeled after a peaceful, holy space, the university can be disruptive.

In contrast to the Catholic monastic ideal, the Protestant ethic calls for the transformation and purification of a corrupt world.

This has become the mission of the American university.

It is speculated that this mission came from the philanthropic foundations that now fund universities.
This would explain the student radicalism of the 1960s.

There were always disgruntled intellectuals in universities.

But only since the 1960s did outspoken scholars become public in their desire to change the world.
This was supposedly the influence of the foundations.

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2016/01/04/what-money-can-buy-profiles-larissa-macfarquhar

There are a couple of problems with this argument.

First, as the sociologist Todd Gitlin has asserted, since the 1970s, university activists have turned inward.

The university is now a surrogate republic as intellectuals have turned on each other and detached themselves from society.

Second, throughout American history, there was always a desire to transform the world, to turn a wilderness into a garden.

In the case of Las Vegas, however, it is not religion or academia that tamed and pasteurized Las Vegas, despite that city's depredations on Americans.

The transformative force homogenizing the world today and erasing special places is the multinational corporation.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heterotopia_(space)